Allan Lichtman, the esteemed political historian who has correctly called nine out of the past 10 White House contests, has made a daring prediction regarding the 2024 presidential election: Vice President Kamala Harris will win.
Lichtman announced this initial forecast on Friday, suggesting that Harris is the front-runner according to his well-established technique.
Lichtman’s forecasting model known as “13 keys to the White House” was developed in 1981 with a mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
This model analyzes the competence of the incumbent party by means of thirteen factors known as “keys”, by which the chances of gaining the presidency are evaluated.
A party must perform well in a minimum of eight out of them to gain the ‘expected’ victory. On the other hand, if an incumbent party fails to perform in six keys, the result implies the incumbent party will lose.
Currently, Lichtman has estimated that Harris has achieved six keys whereas Former President Trump achieved three. But it is important to know that Lichtman said specifically that his final prediction will be reached after the Democratic National Convention in August which does hint that the current set of predictions is not final and could very well change after the said event.
The announcement has sparked reactions on social media.
Some users have criticized Lichtman’s evaluation, with one saying, “I disagree with how he has graded his own forecast. No primary contest? Whatever you call what just happened with the switcher is certainly something, and unprecedented in the history of his model.”
Another user commented, “He’s using manipulated data – like pollsters over-sampling Democrats in 2016 – he’s not going to get the right result because economics, from, & labor data is inaccurate.”
A third user simply stated, “Nah – Trump will win!”
With the political climate changing and the 2024 election getting closer, Lichtman’s forecast will probably be examined and discussed more. All eyes will be on his final forecast, which will offer further insight into the possible direction of the upcoming presidential contest, as his reputation for accuracy is on the line.
